Republicans’ Investigatory Revenge
Prominent Republican lawmakers are publicly entertaining allegations of voter fraud in the 2020 election while simultaneously preparing for Joe Biden to take the White House. The intent is not so much about supporting President Trump’s challenge, but beginning the effort of delegitimizing the Biden agenda.
Depending on your media consumption, you’ve largely seen continuous coverage of one of two stories over the past six weeks: Joe Biden’s decisive victory over the incumbent Republican president, or allegations of widespread voter fraud designed to take down President Donald Trump. The networks, when addressing the opposing narrative, dismiss the arguments as questionable at best — if not full blown conspiracy theories.
Yet, even among the most ardent skeptics, there’s a growing acceptance that Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th — a reality Republican lawmakers have voiced behind closed doors, while publicly showing their support for the president’s accusations that the outcome of the election is tainted by election fraud. This was perhaps best demonstrated by the lawsuit filed in the Supreme Court by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton that sought to overturn the election results in the four battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In the days following, 17 other states’ attorneys general would join 106 congressional Republicans in supporting the case, with President Trump even asking Senator Ted Cruz to give the oral argument to which he reportedly accepted. The Supreme Court would ultimately unanimously dismiss the lawsuit (Justice Alito and Thomas made a separate legal point saying the court shouldn’t summarily prohibit the procedure used for interstate disputes, but didn’t give credence to the arguments presented in the case itself).
The show of solidarity demonstrates Republicans’ remaining support for President Trump; however, one has to ask: Why would these politicians — who will remain in office after President Trump leaves — attach themselves to a lawsuit that most legal experts warned was doomed to fail? Perhaps the true intent was not to show their appreciation for the man who still wields great influence within the party, but to begin a campaign orchestrated to delegitimize the tenure of the man poised to replace him in the White House. GOP lawmakers may be testing the waters to use a page from the Democratic playbook designed to obstruct the agenda of the Trump administration.
The election of Trump in 2016 was met with large scale disbelief. Many let-wing pundits floated the very same improbability of electors stepping in to save the day that many conservatives are voicing today. Then came the claims that the Trump campaign was colluding with the Russian government during the election. Before long, it was the subject that plagued national newspapers and cable news shows in a declining industry desperate for a rejuvenation. The possibility of an election conspiracy was a topic that offered a life line.
The public pressure not only forced the appointment of a special counsel, but the president’s allies to support it. It was a storyline so effective that even Republican-control across the three branches of government couldn’t shake the allegations. Then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions (a former Trump campaign advisor) recused himself from overseeing the investigation due to his due to his own conversations with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Then, Robert Mueller would be tasked to conduct the probe by Rod Rosenstein, the man President Trump himself nominated as deputy attorney general. The investigation had the support needed to not only be launched off the ground but sustained for nearly two years. The scrutiny was able to live on, not by a constant flow of substantive findings but, instead, the possibilities raised by the media and the public’s willing to participate.
This raises a question for Republicans as they prepare for a Biden administration: Is there enough public support to get their desired investigations off the ground? President Trump has reportedly voiced his desires for a special counsel to investigate allegations of voter fraud and the tax affairs of Hunter Biden, but any such designation would carry with it the optics of a political vendetta. This would presumably soften the backlash in the event the newly inaugurated president were to quash the investigation. This is the issue U.S. Attorney John Durham faces despite receiving special counsel status from Attorney General William Barr prior to the announcement of his resignation. Any action taken by President Trump and his Justice Department will need to overcome the accusation it’s nothing more than revenge, much like Democrats were able to do when they forced the appointment of Mueller in 2017.
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll found 70 percent of Republicans don’t believe the 2020 election was free and fair. This figure is likely strong enough to apply pressure to Republican lawmakers (who evidently felt some pressure when they signed onto the Supreme Court case filed by Texas). Yet, strictly partisan calls won’t maintain the perception of legitimacy. In the same poll, only eight-percent of Democrats said they believe the election was not free and fair, showing the split along party affiliation.
From a democratic perspective, the distrust in our political system is alarming (not to mention the 33.2 percent of eligible voters who didn’t participate in the last election). It’s possible Republicans could use the issue to call for a more thorough review while pointing the finger at Democrats who will surely argue any such effort would be a waste of time and resource, to which those on the right will cite “Mueller!” whataboutism to justify greater scrutiny. But, even Mueller saw far greater support at the inception of his review.
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll found 63 percent of all voters agreed with the Justice Department’s appointment of Mueller as a special counsel in 2017, with 80 percent of Democrats supporting the move along with 50 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents. There was a much greater appetite behind the effort to investigate Trump-Russia collusion than we’ve seen thus far for election fraud (or anything related to Hunter Biden). This could change if the GOP were to focus more heavily on the allegations over the coming weeks, but it would likely need its allies in right-wing media to help facilitate any such narrative in order to make a substantive impact.
Following the 2016 election, it became clear the Russian government had attempted to meddle in U.S. politics, which was used as a catalyst to speculate that the Trump campaign could have worked in coordination with the Kremlin to obtain an advantage in the presidential contest. Mueller’s report itself is a testament to the strength of the public’s demand to receive answers to this question, as it detailed 10 possible instances by President Trump to obstruct the investigation, only for those around him to resist any such efforts in fear of the public, and therefore political, backlash.
“The President’s efforts to influence the investigation were mostly unsuccessful, but that is largely because the persons who surrounded the President declined to carry out orders or accede to his requests,” Mueller wrote in his report, which also infamously stated, “[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.”
The latter finding emphasizes an important lesson for Republicans in their potential efforts — whether for legitimate purposes or to achieve political ends — to investigate claims of election fraud that they maintain elevated Biden to the White House: The arguments don’t have to show evidence of the grand allegation as long as it sparks the appropriate curiosity among the public to see an investigation play out.
There is legitimate evidence to suggest some voter fraud took place in the 2020 election — much like it does in every major election. However, the Trump campaign and its allies have failed to prove there was any widespread and organized conspiracy that could have affected the outcome of the presidential race. There has been no clear argument that the instances of wrongdoing amount to a nefarious operation as opposed to mere incompetence on the part of several individuals — neither in the courts nor among the general public. This has resulted in virtually every lawsuit being unsuccessful or outright dismissed, coming as a detriment to Republicans regarding arguments being played out in the media.
The court of public opinion, however, does not follow the same evidentiary and procedural standards as the legal system. The existence of isolated instances of voter fraud in swing states and what supporters of the president call “statistical discrepancies” have fueled the desires of millions of Americans to question the integrity of the 2020 election. Investigations have proven to be an effective way to obstruct the agenda of the White House occupant, such as the Republican-led effort following the 2012 Benghazi attack or the Democratic-backed scrutiny following the 2016 election. As with those examples, any Republican attempt to apply scrutiny on the issue of election fraud depends on if the American people are willing to go along for the ride. Acknowledging where they currently stand, Republicans have work to do.
